'Young investors should focus more on equity, while retired senior citizens should prioritise fixed income.' 'Mid-career investors should aim for a balanced allocation.'
As the results season kicks in, the quarterly earnings numbers of several blue-chip firms -- such as Infosys and Reliance Industries -- along with global trends and trading activity of foreign investors, will determine equity market movement in the holiday-shortened week ahead, according to analysts. The domestic WPI inflation data for June -- scheduled to be announced on Monday -- will also influence trading sentiments, traders said. Markets will remain closed on Wednesday for Muharram.
Market participants attribute the stability to the Reserve Bank of India's timely intervention in the foreign exchange market, both in terms of selling and buying dollars.
Among the Sensex firms, Mahindra & Mahindra, Bharti Airtel, ICICI Bank, IndusInd Bank, Reliance Industries, Axis Bank and HDFC Bank were among the major laggards. Titan, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Asian Paints, HCL Technologies, Tech Mahindra, NTPC, Nestle and Power Grid were the major gainers.
The December meeting of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will start on Wednesday even as there is no clarity on whether Governor Shaktikanta Das, the chair of the panel, will continue in office after his term ends next week. The outcome of the meeting will be announced on Friday by Das at 10 in the morning.
This was Rana's last legal chance not to be extradited to India. Earlier, he lost a legal battle in several federal courts, including the US Court of Appeals for the North Circuit in San Francisco.
Global investors have been cautious this year to put money into Indian real estate, as private equity inflow is down 44 per cent till December 12 to $3 billion compared to the entire previous year, according to Knight Frank. Real estate consultant Knight Frank India on Thursday released its data showing that the Indian real estate market received $3,024 million in PE investments from 23 deals between January 1 and December 12 this year, as against $5,357 million recorded in 2022.
The Reserve Bank of India on Wednesday decided to keep the policy rate unchanged for the tenth time in a row but changed its stance to 'neutral' that may lead to a cut in the forthcoming policies. RBI maintained status quo despite the US Federal Reserve lowering the benchmark rates by 50 basis points last month.
In the backdrop of an over four-decade high inflation, the US Federal Open Market Committee has raised its key policy interest rate by 75 basis points to 2.25-2.50 per cent, anticipating that the increase in the interest rates will be "appropriate". Hiking interest rates typically cool demand in the economy, thereby putting a brake on the inflation rate. The US Federal Reserve in its June meeting too raised the interest rate by 75 basis points, which was the steepest hike since 1994.
Tahawwur Rana, a Canadian citizen and native of Pakistan, was extradited to India to face charges related to his alleged role in the 2008 Mumbai terror attacks. The US Department of Justice said Rana allegedly commended the LeT terrorists who carried out the attacks and suggested they should be awarded Pakistan's highest gallantry award. Rana is accused of facilitating a fraudulent cover for his childhood friend, David Headley, to conduct surveillance in Mumbai for the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) terrorist group. He is also accused of helping Headley submit false visa applications to Indian authorities. This extradition follows a lengthy legal process that began in 2020 with India's request for Rana's surrender. Rana, who was previously convicted in the US for providing material support to LeT, will now face trial in India on 10 criminal charges related to the Mumbai attacks.
Inflows into gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which manage a total of Rs 37,390 crore, have surged sharply in recent months. This trend is likely to continue, especially after the reintroduction of long-term capital gains tax (LTCG), which is likely to attract smart money into mutual fund offerings amid a robust outlook for the yellow metal. Smart money, also known as opportunistic flows, refers to strategic investments that are generally of a short-term horizon.
'A possible post-election growth momentum may be lost.'
Noting that these three Cs haunt Indian education today, the Congress Parliamentary Party chairperson said in an article that this "carnage" of India's public education system must end.
Domestic macroeconomic data announcements, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would guide market sentiments this week, analysts said. After a record rally, markets may face volatile trends this week amid elevated valuations and investors would also keep a track of global oil benchmark Brent crude and rupee-dollar movement for further cues. "Potential volatility in the stock market is anticipated this week. Elevated valuations remain a concern, with investors now focusing on monsoon progress and its impact on the rural economy.
The Reserve Bank is likely to maintain status-quo on the key interest rates for the third time in a row in its upcoming bi-monthly policy review despite the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank hiking benchmark rates, as domestic inflation is within the RBI's comfort zone, say experts. The borrowing cost which started rising in May last year has stabilised with RBI keeping the repo rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent since February when it was raised from 6.25 per cent. In the previous two bi-monthly policy reviews in April and June the benchmark rate was retained.
When evaluating bonds, returns shouldn't be the sole factor. Pay close attention to the bond's credit rating. It should ideally be AA or higher.
The three day MPC meeting began on Monday and the decision will be announced on Wednesday by RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das.
'Our growth in banking, financial services, and insurance (BFSI) is a prime example.'
'Future market gains will likely depend primarily on earnings growth.'
Management commentary on demand environment, and forward guidance will be in focus when Indian IT services players declare their September quarter results for financial year 2024-25 (Q2FY25). The industry is exepected to have continued on the path of recovery in Q2, similar to the preceding quarter, rather than sprint towards growth. The top four firms likely grew between 0 per cent and 4 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y), according to consensus estimates.
'GenAI programmes may not be large in terms of value, but have triggered a lot of new opportunities among clients.'
The US Federal Reserve on Wednesday (local time) raised interest rates by 75 basis points (bps) or three-quarters of a percentage point in the boldest move since 1994.
'Geopolitics will be the most important driver of financial markets in 2025.'
Announcement of macroeconmic data such as industrial production and inflation, the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision along with trends in global equities would dictate movement in the stock market this week, analysts said. Besides, foreign fund trading activity would also guide the trends in equities. "All eyes are now on the US Fed policy outcome for cues, which is scheduled on June 14. In the following sessions, the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Japan (BoJ) will also announce their policy decisions.
Among the Sensex firms, IndusInd Bank, Tata Steel, Tata Motors, Sun Pharma, Infosys, Mahindra & Mahindra, Infosys, NTPC, Bharti Airtel, HCL Technologies and Axis Bank were the biggest gainers. Tech Mahindra and Bajaj Finance were the laggards.
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have pumped Rs 47,148 crore in the Indian equities in June, making it the highest inflow in 10 months, enthused by the country's steadily improving macroeconomic fundamentals. However, inflows in July may be subdued as FPIs might adopt cautious stance due to the recent comments from the US Federal Reserve, Mayank Mehraa, Smallcase manager and principal partner at financial consultancy Craving Alpha, said. Besides, VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services, said FPIs are likely to turn a bit cautious going forward as valuations in the country are rich from a short-term perspective.
Stock markets will be driven by domestic inflation data, ongoing quarterly earnings from corporates and global trends this week, analysts said. News flows around the general election would also be tracked by investors, market experts said.
The central government is expected to complete the auction of the 5.9-million tonne (mt) lithium reserves discovered in the Reasi district of the northern Union Territory (UT) of Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) by the end of this calendar year, Union Mines Secretary Vivek Bharadwaj said on the sidelines of the launch of the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (Ficci) report on 'New-Age Energy Minerals' on Tuesday. "Auction will be over by the end of this year," said Bharadwaj, adding, "We have already recommended a transaction advisor to the J&K government for the auction of lithium reserves." However, the exact timeline for an auction will be decided by J&K authorities, Union mines minister Pralhad Joshi said in Parliament last month.
World champion D Gukesh will take on Fabiano Caruana of the United States in the two-game quarter-final after the latter picked the Indian in a unique format typical of Freestyle Chess Grand Slam, in Hamburg, Germany.
The RBI is fully aware that the high-cost loans and high indebtedness of the borrowers could pose financial stability risks, if not addressed by these NBFCs. Governor Shaktikanta Das has issued a stern warning, saying the RBI is closely monitoring these areas and will not hesitate to take appropriate action, if necessary, if the culprits don't opt for self-correction. Watch out for some action, soon, notes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
With 7 per cent economic growth, India is not creating enough jobs as reflected by the number of applicants for vacant posts in some states, Reserve Bank's former governor Raghuram Rajan said and suggested the government needs to focus on promoting labour-intensive industries to generate employment. Rajan further said some Indians, especially those at upper level, are comfortable and have high incomes, but consumption growth from the lower half of the country has still not recovered to pre-pandemic level.
Indian government bonds, particularly those of shorter maturity, strengthened sharply on Monday, as the collapse of the California-based Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) prompted investors to rush to the safety of American debt, leading to a decline in US bond yields.
Given the possibilities that next year's assembly elections could throw up, Stalin told the state assembly that an interim report had to be submitted by January 2026. The outcomes may well find its way into the DMK's poll manifesto, thus seeking to keep the electoral focus still on the BJP-ruled Centre and Prime Minister Modi, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.
Indian stock markets are expected to be driven mostly by global factors this week amid a lack of local triggers and earnings season largely coming to an end, say analysts. Crude oil prices, rupee movement and US Federal Reserve meeting minutes to be released this week will also influence the market sentiment. "With the earnings season behind us, global cues would largely dictate the trend in the coming week," Ajit Mishra, SVP - technical research, Religare Broking Ltd, said.
In more than one way, it's a setback for the DMK and Chief Minister Stalin in political terms. The electoral fall-out, if any, will have to wait until the next summer, only when assembly elections are due in the state, explains N Sathiya Moorthy.
Tahawwur Hussain Rana, a key accused in the 26/11 Mumbai terror attacks, was brought to India on Thursday after being "successfully extradited " from the US, the National Investigation Agency (NIA) said. The 64-year-old Canadian citizen of Pakistani origin landed in Delhi in a special plane on Thursday evening, ending days of speculation of when and how he will be extradited, officials said. The NIA said in a statement that it had secured the successful extradition after years of sustained and concerted efforts to bring to justice the key conspirator behind the 2008 mayhem that claimed 166 lives. Rana is accused of conspiring with David Coleman Headley alias Daood Gilani, and operatives of designated terrorist organisations Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Harkat-ul-Jihadi Islami (HUJI) along with other Pakistan-based co-conspirators, to carry out the the three-day terror siege of India's financial capital.
Of the eight RBI governors who have held office since the 1991 economic liberalisation, Bimal Jalan had the longest stint and S Venkitaramanan, the shortest. Current Governor Shaktikanta Das will overtake Bimal Jalan before completing his second term in December, points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
To minimise risk, invest in a debt fund whose duration matches your investment timeframe.
Federer may have set the benchmark on how to do tennis retirements. He didn't go out in a blaze of lonely glory but in the warmth of friendships formed over the years, observes Deepti Patwardhan.
In the Sensex pack, 20 stocks ended in the red while 37 of the Nifty constituents closed the session with losses. NTPC was the biggest loser among the Sensex constituents, ending with a loss of 2.71 per cent.
